Historical Intelligence

Your past trades already know
the odds of your next one.

Discretionary traders can't codify their strategy into rigid rules — that's the point of discretion. But they can measure it. Tag what you see, and Chartnaut's ML models learn from your own trading history to surface historical odds before you risk a dollar.

Build a playbook. Train three R-level models automatically. Get historical likelihoods and context intelligence — bowling rails for your discretion.

Historical Likelihoods

Select your conditions.
See the historical odds.

You spot a setup. Before you take the trade, check the conditions against your own history. How often did trades with these exact tags hit 1R? 1.5R? 2R? The answer is already in your data.

Three ML models — one per R-level target you choose — are trained automatically on your playbook. Every new trade makes them smarter. Zero maintenance, zero effort.

Win rates for 1R, 1.5R, 2R+ at a glance
Based entirely on YOUR trading history
Filter by any combination of conditions
Models re-train automatically on new data

Think of it as bowling rails for your discretion. You still make every decision — but now you have the historical frequencies to keep you in the lane.

Historical Intelligence
ES · ORB Breakout Longs
Select Conditions
Gap Up > 0.5%Entry
Above VWAPEntry
ORB Breakout LongSetup
Trend Day StructureContext
Against VP TrendContext
POC Inside VAContext
High Volume Node SupportContext
5 of 7 conditions selected245 matching trades
Historical OddsML
68%probability of hitting 1.0R
1.0R
68%
1.5R
52%
2.0R
38%
Models
3 trained
Criteria5 selected
ConfidenceHigh (245 trades)
DataPrivate — your trades only
Context Intelligence

Don't just see the odds.
Understand what improved them.

Historical likelihoods tell you the probability. Context intelligence tells you why. It surfaces the additional conditions that appeared disproportionately in your winning trades — factors you might not have noticed yourself.

“Trades with POC inside value area had a +20.7% better hit rate.” Now you know what to look for — and what to avoid.

Discovers which factors correlated with winners
Surfaces hidden patterns in your own history
Shows improvement % for each additional condition
Conditions that improved past winners
Against VP Trend
+24.8%
POC stays inside VA
+20.7%
VAL
+17.5%
High Volume Node Support
+14.2%

These conditions appeared more frequently in your winning trades with similar setups.

How It Works

Three steps to your edge.

01

Build your playbook

Log trades directly to a playbook, or assign them while backtesting. Tag each trade with the conditions present — TPO structure, volume profile context, market state. Every trade is a data point that makes the models smarter.

Build your playbook

Log trades directly to a playbook, or assign them while backtesting

02

Models train automatically

Configure your R-level targets and three ML models train continuously on your data. Every new trade triggers a re-train. Zero maintenance, zero effort — the system learns while you trade.

Models train automatically

Configure your R-level targets and three ML models train continuously on your data

03

Get your historical odds

Spot a setup, select the conditions you see. Instantly get historical likelihoods for each R-level and context intelligence showing what additional factors improved past winners — all from YOUR data.

Get your historical odds

Spot a setup, select the conditions you see

Built for discretionary traders

Personal to You

Models trained only on your trades. No generic data.

Multi-Playbook

Separate models for different strategies.

Instant Results

Probabilities surface in seconds. No waiting.

Your Data Stays Yours

Encrypted, private, never shared.

This is not a prediction engine

We analyse your historical data to show what happened before — not what will happen next. All probabilities are descriptive statistics from your own past trades.

Historical frequencies only
Not financial advice
Past results ≠ future outcomes

Your trades already hold the answers. Let's unlock them.

Start building your playbook today. Every trade you log makes your historical intelligence sharper.

14-day free trial
No credit card